Okay, thanks, I don't mean. I call Senate Resources Committee order to order. Today is Friday, February, excuse me, January 23rd, 2026, and the time is 3.30 p.m. So welcome everyone to our first meeting of the year. Committee members present today, we have Senator Rouscher. Senator Meyer is here. Senator Dunbar is excused. Senator Clayman, Senator Kawasaki. Vice Chair Senator Wilakowski and myself Senator Geese. So we have a quorum to conduct business. Recording secretary today is Heather, and helping us out with the audio today, is Jude. On the agenda today we are three subjects. The first one is Senate Bill 75, timber management leases. Then we'll go into a presentation by Pegasus. Global holdings and lastly a presentation from Gaffney Klein. So I'm starting out with Senate Bill 75. I've gotten several emails in the past 15 or 20 minutes from people who have serious concerns about this piece of legislation. It is offered by the governor related to timber management leases. I made a commitment to the Governor. He urgently requested that this bill be heard and moved. I can fulfill my commitment 50%. I will have some testimony on the bill today, one person, invite a testimony, and then we'll set the Bill aside. So, I'm inviting Senator Jesse Bjorkman forward. Welcome, Senator Bjarkman. Senator Bierkman? will not have this bill in any of his committees. He has a lot of state land and state timber resources on the Kenai Peninsula in his district, and he had some concerns. I wanted to give him a venue to express it. I also want to welcome Senator Stedman, who's watching the committee today. Welcome, Senator Steadman. In the past, Senator Steinman has been part of this committee, but in the last few years, he's been busy on finance. Welcome, Senator Bierkman, welcome. Senator Giesel, thank you for this opportunity and for hearing the bill. As we look at and consider the hearing that you all held back in February of last year on this bill, I think it's important that as a state, the Department of Natural Resources, and the legislature, and ultimately the people of Alaska, they understand the vision of what's happening with our public lands. And they understood that we value public fishing and hunting, recreation, hiking, camping, all of those things are extremely important to our way of life as Alaskans. And I think that that vision needs to be retained and clarified as we talk about what timberland leasing means for the department in state forests as this bill is a rollout of a state force proposal by DNR on the Kenai Peninsula that I think could have gone better in a number of ways and I think largely it could've gone better because of communication over what the vision of state forests are and what they are not. Many people thought that a state forest as as outlined in part of this bill which timber leases would would of sorts and somehow a state park. That's not what they are. They are an ability for the state to hold land in the public trust and allow access to continue while also reducing fire fuels on the landscape while allowing for timber harvest while for allowing access that makes putting fires out easier. All of those things are part and parcel to what happens on these public are incorporated into state force or are simply just forested state land so I would encourage the department and you as a committee to really explore this vision of what it is that the Department and our Alaska economy needs from our public land in order to move forward in a functional way what we've seen on the Public land, mostly federal land but some state land burned by wildfire. Those wildfires would be a lot easier to put out if we had active forest management, thinning operations, roads, more access into ground so that we could put fires out before they become conflagrations that are absolutely unstoppable. allow those things to happen, and I think as we look at these issues of what our vision is and what are access issues are, we need to keep those at the forefront. Also, I think it is important to have, this bill might be an appropriate tool or another, to really uniform vision and expectation for the public of access and what happens with our public Right now we have some public lands that are trust lands and those trust lands those people who are in charge of managing trust lands are very eager to tell you well those aren't actually public lands. I think that that idea although technically correct in the public eye is largely baloney respectfully madam chair. We have trust plans that those lands are owned by the government and we the people are our government. That's who we all are responsible for. So I think there would be a lot to be said and a lot of public trust to being gained if the public were absolutely guaranteed public access to trust lands. As we go forward and look at these ideas and think about what it means to have I think it's important to build in safeguards on public access, as well as making people aware of the benefits of The Forest Resources and Practices Act, and the Senator behind me's district on Gravina Island, I believe you can see clear examples of this. And I thing the department would be very well served if they could look at different ways that forests are harvested based on whether or not the land user has to follow the forest resources and practices act or not. On Gravina you have three types of land. You have the federal land, the Tongass forest. You also have a southeast state forest and you have little bit of trust land that's owned by the university. How that landscape looks on those three types land is vastly different because I believe, and I could be wrong, but I think that they have to follow different rules. This in itself is a bill that does a few different things. It allows for active management of the forest which reduces fire risk and reduces the ability for bugs like spruce bark beetles to damage the forests. It also would provide active forest management additional habitat for wildlife and make our forest healthier. What it does not do and what it should not are it should not restrict access, and it should allow for devastation of the landscape. Like we see on some landscapes that are logged in our state, but others, we don't, because it follows the Forest Resources Practices Act. So thank you for this time. I very much appreciate that. The conjecture around some of this bill to speed it through in less than two weeks is not going to happen I think it's worth more consideration than that, but I appreciate your your attention as committee. Thank you Thank You senator Bierkman He'll be around if committee members have any questions About his testimony today. So with that I'm gonna set Senate bill 75 aside So moving on we are going here from Pegasus global holdings incorporated now. Pegasus, committee members have in their packet, the report that Pegasus prepared for us, it is dated 2019, and they were asked actually by Senator Stedman at that time to review what were the errors that were made, what were things that the state could have done better, the project itself was grossly over ran over estimates, over cost. So what could we have been better? And so that's what I've asked Pegasus to present to us today Another mega project, that being a gas pipeline. So I would welcome today our two speakers. We have Jeremy Clark, who is the chief operating officer. We've Joe Miller, who was the president and CEO, and we have Andrew, pardon me, just those two gentlemen, Jeremy and Joe. Welcome, gentlemen. Thank you. I'll let you go ahead and proceed with your presentation. Sure. I see you have it up on the screen there. Would you like me to control it through teams? Or do you someone in the room there to navigate the slides? My staff will control the sides. Perfect. Yeah, thank you again for having us today. My name is Jeremy Clark and I'm joined by Joe Miller, our president, CEO. Many of you are likely familiar with us from our presentation last spring or from our 2019 report, but for those less familiar, I'll provide a brief background on our firm. Pegasus Global provides expert advice and solutions on the planning and delivery of complex construction projects throughout the world. Our experience on mega projects has allowed us to see the good, bad, and ugly of delivering these extremely large and unique projects. We leverage this experience to empower our clients with the strategic knowledge and expertise needed to successfully avoid unnecessary issues, increase efficiencies, manage risk and minimize disputes that are often associated with mega projects. Today, our presentation reiterates much of our 2019 report content covering common issues associated Also, review issues encountered in less than seven from the TAPs and strategic reconfiguration projects that remain relevant today before closing out with the discussion on the Alaska LNG project status. Go ahead and jump to the next slide, please. In 2019, we issued a report to the last state legislature that featured a discussion, all the challenges associated with mega project execution, including specific examples from The TAPS Project. With federal momentum returning to the Alaska LNG project last year, we are invited last April to present the findings from our 2019 report to the legislature. As we noted in our presentation last spring, the challenges and issues raised in our 2018 report are still very applicable to the project today, which we'll discuss as we continue this presentation. Next slide, please. is a mega project most if not all of you have likely heard the term before in essence it is an extremely large and unique project with many complexities and interfaces some of the other characteristics you'll see on the slide here it cost over a billion dollars multi-year construction With their large size and many complexities, megaprojects naturally face execution challenges above and beyond typical projects. An overarching driver to the challenges faced by megabrojics is their long timeline from initiation through planning to execution and delivery of the projects and consider the timeline on the Alaska LNG project, which was effectively initiated with the passage 12 years later, and we're now nearing a FID for phase one of the project. These extended timelines of mega projects lead to additional risks both in the difficulty of planning and estimating future conditions and through the increased exposure to black swan type events. Beyond the immediate direct impact of a realized risk, mega-projects typically have higher exposure to ripple effects across the projects from these risks, which we'll explain in a bit. So, here are some examples of LNG project risks with the major risk category there on the left and then risk factors associated with each underneath, and you'll see the major categories cover economics, design, procurement, construction and other key functions that support the delivery of the project. Often, there's a heightened focus on the Project Execution-related issues like design particularly as the project advances to the execution phase, but all risk categories must be considered and addressed. Next slide, please. Here, we talked about the ripple effects that can impact the projects beyond the immediate effect of the risk itself, and the slide shows you the realize risk on the left, the media impact in the center there, and then the Ripple impacts on Notably, each of these examples includes a slip to the schedule as a ripple effect. Schedule slips naturally have an associated cost impact as well. And additionally, due to that project environment, scheduled delays may have additional impacts if the work pushes out of a favorable execution window. There are activities that were planned in the summer that get shifted into the winter being a prime example with lower productivity and more weather events coming of course in the Winter. Could you pause, Mr. Clark, for a moment, just on that point, of course, in Alaska, our construction season is the winter, typically, right, with our permafrost and so forth. But pause for just one second. I want to see if any committee members have questions at this point. All right. See. Yes. Senator Willakowski. Well, fundamentally is, I don't know if they're how prepared they are to answer questions general in nature because a question I have about this particular project is who ultimately one question is Who ultimately bears the downside risk if costs rise or markets soften? I don't know how familiar you are with what's going on and maybe that's more appropriate for Gaffney and Klein Yeah, I'm sorry I had a little difficulties here in the question there the questions who In this project who ultimately bears the downside risk if costs rise or markets soften If Who bears, the down side risk? If the market changes was at the yes question At this point, I don't think that we have enough information to fully determine that it would ultimately be all stakeholders involved in the project would have some degree of exposure with the various contracts and agreements kind of defining you ultimately as that exposure. Follow-up. Follow up. Senator Wilkowski. If so, what we've heard is that the project costs will remain confidential and I'm curious your perspective on that because we have an obligation to I'm curious if you have any thoughts or ideas on how we can protect the state and the rate payers when the costs are confidential and we don't even know what they will be. It's a extremely unique situation. I can't recall being involved in a project where the cost were kept confidential. Joe, I don' t know if he had other experience on that. No, i've not seen that before. Any follow-up? Yeah, certainly very unusual. Thank you, any follow up, Senator Wieckowski? All right, other questions? Seeing none, I'll let you proceed, Mr. Clark. Thank You. Here, as a result of those mega project challenges we've discussed, it's very common for mega projects to go over budget, beyond schedule and have variations in their delivered benefits. Despite those challenges, completed mega projects generally still provide their intended benefits, even at a higher cost than planned. The VOGO nuclear project in Georgia is a prime example. The project encountered a variety of challenges from COVID-19 to the bankruptcy of a key project partner. This is the first deployment of advanced nuclear reactor technologies in the U.S. and involved rebuilding the domestic nuclear industry after decades of inactivity. Thank the project at around 14 billion with final cost of over 36 billion as well as it taking seven years longer than initially planned to complete. However, despite all those issues, it now provides over 2,000 megawatts of reliable electricity and enough to power over two million homes which will continue to operate for another 60 to 80 years. Next slide please. So, who pays for the project cost overruns, so we hinted at this earlier. The highest level of the projects owner, main contractors, and end-users collectively each have exposure to the Project Cost overrun, between the owner and contractors. The construction contracts provide the mechanism for which cost over runs are allocated, and between owner-end-user toy and agreement similarly provide mechanism to which costs We've had some experience on the trans-mountain expansion project in Canada where they utilized capped and uncapped segments of the pipeline in their towing agreement. With the cap sections included in the picks tool, but can't exceed the cost cap, which limits the exposure of cost overruns to the shippers in these areas while the project owners since the risk. Well, the uncapspreds involved. They recognized and heightened risk and uncertainty in these specific areas that involve construction through mountainous regions and urban areas with these costs fully recover both from the shippers. Of course contracts and agreements can vary widely in their quality and ability to appropriately address project needs and issues, but that is the typical mechanism to These are contracting approaches under EPC and ETCM arrangements. The contracting methodology should match the needs of the project and its environment that considers risks, regulations and the experience and capabilities of partners. The increased collaboration under Alliance and collaborative agreements. is supported through establishing common objectives and clear risk sharing in addition to the owner engineer and contractor working under a one-team approach. And maximum alignment is achieved through an integrated project delivery methodology that involves early engagement of all key project partners through a multi-party contract. Integrating the people processes and structures of those parties while also aligning the interests of the partners and includes. along with all participants collectively sharing in the outcomes of the project cost and schedule performance. Mr. Clark, before you move on, could you translate the two acronyms at the heading of this slide? Oh, sure, yes. EPC is just engineer procuring constructs and EBCM is engineer per cur and construction management. Those are typically the contracts you'll see vendors that are engaged to deliver mega projects. Thank you. A question from Senator Wilakowski. So we put that in this particular project. The lender has the exposure of cost overruns. Is this something that's common in these sort of agreements? It's not unheard of, but usually there is a balance. I don't think it's typical for 100% of the costs to be allocated to a given party. Usually there's a bit of nuance within those agreements. Follow up? All right, thank you. And I didn't see any other questions. I'll let you proceed, Mr. Clark. Sure. Next slide, please. So some considerations on the construction contracting. Ideally, the contracting approach should support the strategic vision of the project owners while providing alignment amongst the parties and allowing adaptation to the complexities and uncertainties. Risk allocation should be clear and consistent with risks assigned to party best in position to manage or mitigate the risk. Risk management efforts must also remain robust throughout the planning and execution with live participation among project partners. integrated project delivery methodology that we showed on that last slide. Those have been applied often on large and complex first-of-a-kind type projects as it incentivizes the parties to work together to minimize risk and streamline decision-making. It also reduces construction risk primarily through its core principles of early engagement of key stakeholders shirt financial incentives and a no-blame culture of open communication among key stakeholders Next slide, please. Mr. Clark, um, Senator Myers. Senator Meyers has a question And thank you madam chair. So, mr. Clarke, I'm seeing your your statements at risk should be assigned to the party best able to manage it or mitigate it that concerns me a little bit that I would think that you should under most circumstances you assign risk to the party, most likely to cause it. Otherwise, you start to go up with some perverse incentives where I can do some things that benefit me and cause risk for others. What's your feeling on that? In our experience, it is common practice for risks to be allocated to a party that is best in position to manage it as they would the risk and the impacts you typically would want to see and that's where you would like to have more of that collaborative type agreement where the parties have alignment on their not only on the objectives but on the views of risks which we've seen on some projects where the owner and contractor use a shared risk register so everybody has a the common view and a share understanding of the risks and agrees on So that might be one approach there where you, you know, you assign the risk mitigation to the party best responsible to manage your mitigative, but collectively you're all involved in that risk management exercise. Okay. Senator Clayman has a question. I need to follow up on the question or the comments you just made. It seems like the confidentiality of so much of the. Alaska LNG project makes it very difficult for us as folks representing the public to understand how those risks are being balanced down. I mean certainly we don't understand the state's risk, but if there's say three major parties to the agreement, how can we understand how the risk is being allocated if it's all confidential? That is a very rare question, and that was one of our open questions. You know, there's a lot of information and data that would typically be available. If not publicly, at least to the key stakeholders that we just haven't seen at this point. So that is certainly a valid question. Follow up. Follow ups and you're claiming. If I were a lending institution thinking of lending billions of dollars to a project of this size, the lending institutions would get, because of confidentiality agreements that would be applying to the Lending Institution, I would have full access to that confidential information and how those risks were being allocated. I guess partly to me as the lender would be one of the people in that risk, but I'd have access You know, I think it's common for certain information to be, you know not in the public domain, there would be confidential and proprietary and competitive information in contracts as an example that might be redacted, but it would unusual for significant amount of information not to be made available in this kind of situation to the public or at least the legislature in this case. Senator Willakowski follow-up on that question so what one of the things that we have been told that will be asked to legislate is some sort of reduction in municipal tax rates and What's sorta and that's going to be a challenge if we don't know the numbers are the are that? Are the rates are we being asked to give tax concessions to make the project viable or to just increase investor profits? What sort of information would you advise that we know in order to make that analysis? You know, ideally it would be nice to have access to the same economic model that Glenn Farne is using so that the parties are all working off the saying song sheet. And they see all the same variables, the same assumptions. And then you typically do sensitivity analysis to see how the economics move with various things, such as property tax, like you mentioned. And so definitely access to information is extremely important in this situation to evaluate this on behalf of Alaskans. Follow-up, Senator Wilakowski. And we find ourselves a lot in this position a lot when dealing with oil and gas issues. And if we don't get that information, would you advise that we just trust them and just make whatever tax cuts they ask for? That would be difficult to advise you to do that in that situation. You know, I'm gonna follow up. on this line of questioning, and this is somewhat a flag for Mr. Fulford from Gaffney Klein, who will be coming up shortly. The project right now is 75% owned by Glenfarn, but 25% of it is owned 8 star. So is 8-star party to these confidential documents, We've had hearings, but we've not had eight star before us in legislative budget and audit committee hearings. And I think we need to ask Mr. Falford when he comes forward. First of all, who are these people and are they getting the confidential information? And are those supposed to be representing the state? So we can explore this a bit more, I believe, when Gaffney Klein comes forward? Any other questions at this time? All right, we'll move on. Thank you, Mr. Clark. You'd move onto your next slide. Sure, thank you. This looks at the common pre-execution phases of an LNG project. Typically, oil and gas and other infrastructure projects advance through multiple planning and development phases that increase project definition and estimate accuracy before the final investment decision is made. with a stage or phase gate milestone for each that allows a thorough review of the project status and deliverables by senior management and other stakeholders before approval to proceed to the next stage of development. FEL0 starts things off with the identification of the business opportunity and high level solutions with rough cost and schedule estimate and an FEL1 further explores and evaluates the option to realize the opportunity with a preferred solution identified, feasibility confirmed, and more refined cost and schedule estimates, leading to around plus or minus 30% accuracy. FFL2 further refines the selected option, defining the technical scope and boundaries, developing initial execution strategies, preliminary designs, detailed strategies to develop. to address identified risks and an updated cost and schedule estimate with around a plus or minus 20 to 25% accuracy. Lastly, the FEL3 and feed phase where the project's development is finalized and prepared for execution. This includes detailed engineering, fully developed scopes, contracts for key equipment and material and a final cost-and-schedule estimate to support the FID and serve as a baseline for monitoring performance. With the FEL3 heat phase, it is typically includes the development of what the industry refers to as a class 3 estimate with an expected accuracy range around plus or minus 10 to 15 percent. For pipeline projects, the class three estimate is based on project definition deliverables that include pleated hydraulic studies, completed geotechnical studies. pipes, coatings, valves, and crossings to find, long-leaf pipe material quotes received, all right-of-way title holders identified, and around 10% to 40% of overall engineering complete. So, Mr. Clark, a question. So if we are told that final investment decision for the public, that's FID, has been reached, then that level of detail should have been achieved. by the project manager. Is that accurate? Yep, that is a pretty common industry practice to have your FID around a class three estimate, and then there's different industry standards that define what constitutes a classroom estimate. What sort of inputs you need to have to find to reach that level of definition? Thank you, and could you tell me what the acronym FEL stands for? That is front-end loading. It's an industry term of art that basically relates to the early pre-execution planning and development phases. Thank You Here's a question from cinder will a koski thank you What happens if FID occurs before key regulatory or legislative processes are complete? Is that common? I don't know that I'd say it's common, but it, when you, if you make your F.I.D. with certain aspects, certain key aspects of the projects unknown, then once those become defined, a significant influence to a project that could be positive or negative depending on what the factors ultimately end up being. But at the end of the day, it's just another layer of uncertainty that would be present when you commence the projects. Follow-up. Follow up. Followup, Senator Wilakowski. What project terms would effectively become locked in at final The project terms, what you have looked to have a fairly developed scope with a lot of engineering and studies done to kind of support your plans and estimate. We'll sign up contractors and other partners earlier into the planning phase under a specific contract for that planning face that is intended to roll into execution phase. So there's a lot of different ways that it could be approached in a lotta different kind of levels of completeness that could present at a FID decision. All right, I see no further questions. I'll let you proceed, Mr. Clark. Thank you. Next slide, please. So what we talked about the accuracy range of a class three estimate is roughly at a plus or minus 10 to 15 percent. Specifically for the pipeline industry. AC which provides these industry standards defines it at minus ten to minus 20 percent on the low end and plus 10 plus 30 on the high end. Guidance from AC. provides that the expected accuracy range uses an 80% confidence level, meaning that based on all the risk probabilities it's likely to be under that estimate 80 percent of the time. The accuracy range is also directly influenced by several factors including project-specific characteristics, robustness of planning and feasibility efforts, stakeholder pressure to maintain Exposure to the systemic risks also relates to the extended timeline of mega project development. Given the multi-year development efforts ahead of execution, it can be a particular challenge check or the forecast market, economic, and geopolitical circumstances that are both volatile, and have high impact on mega projects. Next slide, please. We covered several factors that can influence the accuracy of the estimate and related deliverables that support that final investment decision. These are risks of delaying the FID itself. Escalating project costs and market opportunity loss both relate to the changes in economic conditions that we have discussed. Display chain disruptions from a delayed F ID can lead to missed delivery windows for long lead materials. regular regulatory and permitting issues may arise when such approvals have expiration or renewal dates tied to them. This may also lead to the need for regulatory or permitting approvals under different administrations from what initially approved them investors contractors and communities maybe hasn't it to engage in the project if it is perceived as unstable or unlikely to And the longer our project takes to execute, the more likely there will be turnover within the project team. And within mega projects, it's a virtual certainty there'll be a turnover in these key roles due to the long duration of the projects. This can result in a loss of key skills and knowledge, if not appropriately prepared for, it can also impact the morale of a team Next slide, please. I'm moving on to the TAPS projects. Well constructed in the mid to late 70s, it's based many of the challenges that exist today for the Alaska project at LNG project. The project, the taps project was obviously completed and has been operating for nearly 50 years. It's a double in cost, and that's roughly $40 billion in today's dollars. As you can see a GAO report on the project identified a number of site-specific challenges encountered on The TAPS Project, which are also very applicable to the Alaska LNG project, particularly the varying ground conditions and productivity in cold weather. required scopes not in the initial estimate and adequate contingency and no escalation within the estimate while also realizing a four-year delay to the start of construction. This highlights the importance of having through estimating processes including third-party reviews to validate the estimate. It also raises the importance the having robust risk estimates to inform the amount of contingency included in those estimates. Home and practice now is to use quantitative risk analyses to understand risk impacts on cost and schedule Using a statistical analysis and simulations to forecast potential outcomes and provide competence in the estimate Next slide, please The GAO review of the TAPS projects identified several lessons learned that are relevant to nearly all megaprojects, including the Alaska LNG project. This includes incorporating as much project-specific data as feasible while also having awareness of existing uncertainties and other risks. It also leads to a stage or phase skates in the bullet on government approval, Stage or phase gating refers to the specific defined points during a project's development, usually around the completion of those progressive FBL phases. They require a formal management review of the status around project performance, business rationale, and project planning before advancing to next phase. Next slide, please. examined a FERC perdence review of the 2004 strategic reconfiguration project, the involved installation of new pumps and upgraded technology to improve operations. The previous review found an adequate upfront engineering design which contributed to an inaccurate cost assessment, schedule and execution plan. The initial estimate for this project was On the next slide, please. Now, turning our attention to the Alaska LNG project itself. This slide presents a very high level timeline from the passage of Senate Bill 138 in 2014, a established the initial framework for North Slope Natural Gas Development through the Initial Agreements and Changing Status of to Glenfarn's current advancement towards a FID. We also saw that just yesterday, Glenfarn issued an update on phase one of the project that noted among other things they're targeting pipeline completion in 2028 and conditional words for the pipeline construction and pipes apply are in place as are the gas apply agreements. Well, Glenn Farn has not yet disclosed updated project cost on this side panel there you can see how the public cost estimates have changed over the years. Now, the most recent we found was just under $11 billion for phase one of the project. You can also see the initial estimate had a wide range from $45 to $65 billion and using a range of probable costs is an increasingly common practice, particularly for early cost estimates that feature more uncertainty. of those circumstances and risk events. So using the range presents more realistic view of the potential outcomes. Mr. Clark, before you go on, to be fair, phase one does not include an LNG export facility. That's correct, yeah. So that would account somewhat for the more economic cost. But just a point. Yeah, and I mean on that note, you know, the earlier cost estimates I haven't seen a Well, I don't know that it was envisioned of a phase one and phase two So we're not really sure, You know how it would have split to do that apples to apples comparison All right, i don t tell you the questions. Oh, there is another question pardon me. Senator Wilkowski the phase 1 on this project is as I understand it all It's for all gas for Alaskans and so if the price estimate was instead of ten point eight billion dollars and say twenty billion Dollars, I Assume that they would just simply go and and increase the tariff is that that fair to say and in which case the the cost overruns Would be born solely by the? Consumers of Alaska is at your estimation of what would happen or would would Glenfarn and the equity owners of the lenders bear the bear the costs I would only have to assume at this point, but I'd assume that the cost would probably be passed on through the tariffs, would be my assumption on that. I think the regulatory commission of Alaska would have significant input there as well. Good follow-up. Do you. Do you have any legislation that you recommend, or would you expect that the RCA would just simply allow a pass-through so that the consumers would pick it up? Yeah. That really goes at having recommended any legislation goes a bit beyond my personal expertise. I don't know if you've other than say it. What I've seen in states is statute language that addresses cost overruns in that case. I have seen cases where there may be a target price of let's say $10 billion, but if it goes over that, then the company would need to prove that those costs were incurred in a prudent and reasonable manner. Very good. Thank you. I see no other questions. I'll let you proceed to the next slide. Thank You And so as the Alaska L&D project continues on its latest phase of development with the project near the final investment decision We've identified general areas where additional information and oversight could be beneficial to legislature Most of these points concern the status and readiness of the Project planning efforts to support execution as well as how phase two is being handled. We also identified additional questions from Glenfarn's recent update. They noted that phase one may or may not include the 63-mile point tops and lateral pipeline, suggesting at least some scope uncertainty remains. The announcement also suggested but did not explicitly state the feed study was completed. Please, one engineering work was sufficient to sport at ID and it also provided no update on the final investment decision itself but did indicate the project is advancing from its development to early execution phase. Next slide, please. So with that, as the project advances, we've identified high-level recommendations relating to the general oversight of the projects that would be beneficial to this state, particularly if it retains the minority ownership position. The first three bullets are generally one-off specific scopes that are intended to provide an independent assessment of key project aspects that inform the FID and execution approach. Well, the fourth bullet on independent monitoring for an advisory committee Is a recurring effort typically performed throughout the execution of the project to assess and report on the projects status itself And for which cost are usually paid for directly by the Project And that concludes our presentation Can open it up to any other questions or comments Thank you Committee members further questions Senator Myers Thank you, Madam Chair, so I Have a question. I'm just not sure if these gentlemen are the correct ones to direct it to but So maybe it's just a statement at this point, but we're suggesting a detailed review of the feed study and to Senator Willakowski's point if The feed studies a confidential document of going far That's going to make it a little bit difficult for us to review it if possible and so I don't know what the solution is there It's a very good question The dilemma we're in absolutely I kind of like that last bullet that talks about an independent project monitor But again if the information is confidential Yes This has been very helpful Mr. Clark and Mr Miller I don't see any further questions at this time But I appreciate you being available to us as a consultant as this goes forward So, thank you very much for your presentation today We'll be in touch. Thank you for having us. Thank You. All right All right, with that, and again, as I said, members of the committee have the Pegasus report in your materials. And it is online at the website for this committee, which is resources. The whole study, let me check that email address for the public. It is senate.resources at AKLEG. So you'll find those documents there. So next up we're going to hear from the legislature's consultant, Gaffney Klein. And here today in person is Nick Fulford. He is the senior director of gas, LNG, and energy transitions at Gafney-Klein. Yes, is Andrew Duncan. He is the Director of Facilities and Costs at Gaffney Klein Energy. So welcome, Mr. Fulford, who's here in person. So I'm speaking directly to you. Mr Fulford, I don't know quite where you were going to begin but I'll kind of start it out here. You had forwarded to me a letter. From it's actually on the stationary of Gaffney Klein and Baker Hughes members have it at their desks And if it is not uploaded on website yet, it will be But it addresses the topic of conflicts of interest and confidentiality Do you wish to review this prior to your presentation? Thank you, Jege Zor. I think with your permission, I'd like to offer a brief statement to the committee, particularly in the light of some of the discussions that's taken place. So for the record, my name is Nicholas Fulford, senior director at GAFT decline. So before starting our presentation today, I would like offer this brief statements really about the scope of our studies, and in particular, the measures that we take to ensure that our analysis reports and recommendations remain independent, objective, and reliable. So as an energy consulting company with nearly 70 years experience now in the industry, the integrity of our work, it's a core requirement and obviously a competitive strength. Since Gaffney-Cline was acquired by Baker Hughes back in 2008, safeguards have been in place to ensure that client data, project analysis carried out by Goffney Cline. are restricted and accessible only to the gaff decline team members directly engaged on supporting a client. So as the committee is aware, I think it was nine days prior to our first presentation on the LNG project on November the 19th. Baker Hughes announced that it had entered into an agreement So I'd like to emphasise that due to the established procedures and separation measures we have in place, none of the GAFTIC line personnel responsible for preparing our report or indeed conducting our analysis are involved in or are indeed aware of discussions between Baker Hughes and Glenn Fahn. No additional communications have occurred since that announcement. Gaffney Klein affirms that the preparation of this report and our presentation today has been conducted independently and without any input or influence from other business units or affiliates of Baker Hughes. Moreover, no information contained in our study has been shared with or derived from any other entity within Baker Hues corporate group except where expressly required under applicable law or contractual terms. Obviously, we've been working with the legislature many years now and given the reliance on our advice at this and other committees Will you believe it's essential to be fully transparent about these circumstances? And we welcome any questions that you might have Regarding our work or processes or indeed the safeguards that ensure the independence and objectivity our analysis So appreciate the opportunity to offer those comments Thank you, mr. Faufford Committee members any questions this has been uh they have the committee members have indicated no questions so I'll proceed um this was a significant question that came forward when we became aware of the um the ownership Baker Hughes holds over Gavney Klein. Mr. Fulford the But, you know, when I go to the Baker Hughes website, you're listed as senior director of gas, LNG, with Baker Huse, and there's Gaffney Klein, I'm having difficulty finding the separation here. It's, I certainly know attorney, though we have several sitting at the table, but it's my understanding that there is a responsibility on your part to make every effort to support the success of the owner company that being Baker Hughes, who now is affiliated with Glenfarn, who is 75% owner of our project. And so I'm struggling to feel comfortable that there's actually a separation and that you are actually advising us to the benefit of us versus bigger Hughes who owns you. Thank you for your comments, Jay Geisel. And it's certainly over the years, occasionally the world of Gaffney Klein and the World of And, in those circumstances, clients quite rightly seek additional assurances in terms of how data is being used and separated. On occasions, we require additional constraints and separations to occur internally in terms of where data's stored, et cetera. And certainly, if this is one of those occasions now with the announced relationship between further measures over and above the ones that were set out in our letter and the ones I've talked about today I'm sure could be put in place. Ideally our goal is to satisfy your requirements as a major client and obviously anything we can do to help with that we will seek to put it in place for you. I would definitely like to see in writing what those but let me ask you if we consulted you for advice, perhaps on legislation that we're writing or whatnot, and that question, you would be at a cross-roads of either advising us to the benefit of the state of Alaska Where would you fall? Would you give the advice to the state of Alaska that would benefit the State of Alaskan? Or would be supporting Baker Hughes and the Glenfarn owners? Where will that fall. Thank you for those observations. Chagizal. I might draw a parallel with expert witness work that we do for international arbitrations or courts where in those circumstances our clear duty is to provide objective independent advice to the court or the arbitrator. So that discipline around independence and objective advice is a thread that kind of And, you know, there have been, for example, there've been occasions where that expert witness work has seen us being working against major clients and so forth. But ultimately, it's those guidelines governing the independence and the objectiveness of our advice, which is a core company value, if you like. Gaffney Klein is a wholly owned subsidiary of Baker Hughes. Since 2008, yes, Chaggyzel. So, in that structure, my understanding is that you have a fiduciary responsibility to Baker Hues as an employee of Gafney Kline. Correct? I think the interpretation of my fiduciary duty is a tricky one to comment on in this context. Ultimately, the Gaffney-Cline business model and the way in which we are measured in Gafney -cline is on our independent advisory work that we do with clients around the world. And the value of that independent advice, because without it, clearly, Gaffney Klein and ultimately the parent company would suffer. Well, this is a pretty unique situation. We have a mega project where the documentation, the fiscals, the contracts, et cetera, everything is confidential. And yet, your parent-company... you are wholly owned subsidiary of, is part of that project and you're supposed to be advising us on how best to to Get the best deal for the state of Alaska. This seems pretty complicated to me The courts have ruled that a wholly-owned subsidiary has a unity of interest with that entity, in other words, bigger hues and Gaffney Klein. So I'm trying to feel confident that faced with all this confidentiality and yet knowing that your parent company is part of the documentation that's confidential from us, that I am not quite sure how confident we can be in your advice. Can you help me with it? I really appreciate your concerns and your willingness to open up the discussion today. I think the nature of the dialogue is perhaps getting a little beyond my own sort of area of expertise to be able to comment on. My legal colleagues helped me with the basis of opinion and the expressions of comments today, and I think I should probably refer to them for any additional advice. Very good. Well, I appreciate the fact that Gaffney Klein opened the conversation today by sending me the letter You heard the concerns at the late Legislative budget not a committee a month ago, and I Appreciate that you acknowledged not you personally, but Gafney Kline and Baker Hughes acknowledged that this is a concern and Apparently acknowledged, that it's a valid concern Since I received the letter. So I'm gonna have you continue with your presentation today But understand that this question is still lingering and I would like to see more legal Clarity here, so please proceed with Your presentation just one question a question from senator Wilkowski. We've used gaffney Klein. I remember using you in 2007 back in aces and and found your I don't know if it was yours, but found the analysis of Gaffney-Korn to be very, very helpful there, and I know you're representing all companies at the time as well. Are there other sovereigns that you represent where there's potential and adverse or different interests with Baker Hughes? Thank you, Senator Wielikowski. I suppose one comment I would offer is that I believe There is Baker Hughes equipment in about 80 or 90 percent of the LNG plants around the world so in that sense any time that we're advising an investor or a lender or a sovereign state Potentially there's always that slight overlap clearly in this case You know it's been brought to the fore because of the very active dialogue between you know Glenn Fahn and yourselves But certainly, from an LNG perspective, you know, the division of Baker Hughes that entered into the agreement with Land Farm that focuses on equipment, providing plant and so forth. And as I say, that same dialogue happens with probably almost every L&G project in the world. Obviously, it's particularly obvious here, because of the commentary that we've seen in the press. Follow-ups and your World Cup share your concerns, Madam Chair, I wish we had it, and I feel more comfortable if we have someone completely not affiliated with Baker Hughes. I don't know that that's possible and I know you've been working with the state of Alaska for at least 20 years probably. So I'm interested to hear your testimony and but I'd share your concerns. Thank you, Senator Wilkowski. I'll let you proceed, Mr. Fulford. Okay. Thank very much, Jackie Zoll. And really following the direction that we've given in terms of today's hearing, there's really three broad areas that would like to cover and, I will just advance the slides. So, first of all, obviously there's been a lot of discussion about property tax and the request to mitigate that or offer concessions. So part of today's presentation talks about how that's being handled in Texas and Louisiana, and also Maryland, which is, I think, a relevant and interesting example. The other area of interest I think which is quite relevant to today's hearing and indeed the project is Activity just south of us here on the Canadian coast not just with LNG Canada But some of the other projects that are evolving there You know with the with announcements yesterday and with continuing Sort of development of The project that being led by Glenn Fahn The other thing, which I think is useful to spend some time on, is to look back to Senate Bill 138 and some of the measures which we've followed through from that. And then, finally, I'd like to ask my colleague, Andrew Duncan, who's online today. He's from Gaffney Klein Office in Singapore. He has a lot of experience on FID readiness and that side of equation, which will speak to him. So before we get into the slides if if that order of materials is okay, we'll just press on that would be great Thank you. Okay So I wanted to start with Louisiana as I'm sure many of you here know Louisiana's is probably one of the major hubs for Gulf Coast LNG projects and The issue of property tax has been addressed not only for LNG plant but you know all sorts of other hydrocarbon and manufacturing facilities. So there's a generic statute in Louisiana which provides for property-tax relief for major industrial projects. There's technically an influence So, you know, sometimes people look at the sort of property tax concession per job being created and certainly LNG typically does not have a high number of jobs attached to it. So as I say, the statute in Louisiana provides for up to 80 percent property-tax relief for So, it's worth pointing out that the way in which taxable value is determined in Louisiana property tax is different to here in Alaska. In the sense that it is an ongoing valuation which obviously takes into account a number of factors. So certainly the plan is that after the property-tax concession, the regular property And for Louisiana, that's about 100 mills of property tax rate on the planted equipment. One of the questions, which is arisen in Louisiana is the same one that I think is under discussion here, which really is really the value of those tax concessions and the impact on state's residents, obviously in exchange for these very large economic benefits. So, on the table here, we have some typical property tax rebates and their value over the 10-year rebate. Sabine Pass is perhaps the largest. One of the reasons for that is that it's a major LNG facility, which is, I think, pushing past 30 million tons per annum now. property tax benefit. Then the next two projects are owned by Venture Global. Calculus UPass has been in operation for a couple of years. Placmin has just started in Operation. So also on this list is Magnolia LNG, which is owned in Glenfarn. And the estimated property tax benefits for that project is about $500 million. So certainly for Louisiana, property tax concessions have been a central theme of the LNG development. And as I say, the statute which allows this to happen was put in place some time ago and applies across the board to any major investment in the state. So that provides one example of how property taxes are dealt with. Actually the last point on The 80% reduction in property tax for 10 years, there are other mechanisms for further tax concessions and I think one or two projects have more or less negotiated that property tax down to zero, at least for ten years. Before you go, questions? Members of the committee? Senator Kawasaki, you had a question? Yeah, thanks. I'm just trying to think of this apples to apples. So right now we've got a 20 mill rate on oil and gas property taxed across the state. What is that here for Louisiana? What are you saying that that is? Or without the incentives? One way of looking at it is a 100 mils that has a much slower decline rate. than you do here in Alaska, compared to 200 mills that declines based on depreciation. So in that sense, the major effect would be one of discount rate and time value of money. As I've mentioned in previous discussions about LNG, disproportionately high because of the way in which particularly private investors would look at time value of money and the discount rates. So that there's two factors at play. One is the mill rate, but perhaps the more important one is the profile associated with the property tax. I'm pretty sure this is the way like if you have a home the property taxes aren't a hundred percent at the first You know it it also grades up as the construction begins and as it ends Then it peaks at some point and then it goes back down. So does that I guess I've tried to track it to apples-to-apples again with Of a property taxpayer what happens in that case? Through the chairs an excellent question senator Kawasaki So, as it happens, I think it was HB4 back in 2014, maybe, which has already ameliorated the property tax burden on the project by delaying it until first gas. So in this instance, under the current property-tax arrangement, it would become payable once Thanks. Senator Wilkowski. Thank you. I want a gas line just as much as anybody in this committee, but I have a hard time giving a say, well saying I guess to communities, you have to reduce your property taxes without seeing the books. Is this investing, is this padding investor profits? Is this required to get a hurdle rate? I guess that's my fundamental question, is how do we make this decision without knowing what the numbers are? Thank you, Senator Wollicowski, through the chair. We've touched on this topic already, once or twice in this hearing, and there are probably legislative and regulatory processes at play here, which in an ideal world would rely on quite significant disclosures. about cost and profiles, and so forth. Although it's not a topic for today, for example, the determination of a tariff for the pipeline through the RCA. I believe the RCAA regulatory framework would typically require quite significant disclosures. I don't know from a confidentiality point of view, I do not know how far those disclosures have to go, you know, in terms of making a disclosure or making a determination which is clearly in the public interest to the last citizens, some level of that disclosure might be appropriate. A point I've made before, and I think the previous speakers sort of intimated at this, it's quite common for a project to create what's called an open book economic model, It allows stakeholders to come at a project like this from a standard perspective. But you can put your own assumptions in in terms of oil price, discount rate, cost of capital, or all those things which are proprietary. You keep outside the open book model. But nonetheless, it does provide a common basis for dialogue, particularly when very sums of money are being discussed. So would that be your recommendation that we require or perhaps begin by requesting an open book economic model from Glenfern? I believe it would be an appropriate request to be made. the previous incarnation of the project and it was used by the state and the other companies involved to arrive at determinations around things like property tax. Thank you. The other interesting thing on your slide here is the third bullet. The reduction you're portraying here, is limited to 10 years. property tax reduction in our state would go in perpetuity last the whole time. So that's interesting. Is the 10 years pretty typical? I thought you had said that but I wasn't sure. The 10 year's check is baked into the legislation, the Louisiana Statute that applies coming back to my earlier point for a project developer relief in the first ten years of the project is very much more significant than in subsequent periods of time and So, you know to some extent you, know many of these LNG projects exist around a kind of a balance between mitigating near-term costs which heavily impact the economics of the project and then longer- term benefits where you know a government or a sovereign stakeholder might have more opportunity to look for ways to develop value. Thank you. Further questions? Seeing none I'll let you go to the next slide. Thank You Cheggis. So the And you'll see a summary at the top there in terms of how property taxes allocated across different local authorities. So you've got the county city port authority of applicable in the school district. So, you will note there that the School District, mill rate, is the largest contribution. mechanism existed to that in Louisiana, but following a reform and a kind of a sunsetting of some of those property tax concessions, the subsequent regulatory arrangements excluded school district taxation. So effectively it more or less halved the property taxes available. You'll see on this chart a number of property tax relief, and you can see there some very significant numbers. Corpus Christi LNG, one and a quarter billion dollars, and again just to put that into context, Corpus Christia will be expanding to about 50 million tons per annum, so two and a half times bigger than Alaska Lng, and that's one of the reasons for that very large number. In terms of doing the math on this, a good rule of thumb is to say that Gulf Coast liquefaction costs about $1,000 or $1200 a ton of annual capacity. So from that you can essentially derive an approximate capital cost of some of these facilities and get some sense of the significance of this property tax relief numbers. Glenn Fahn were successful in achieving property tax concessions from the, essentially the local government. And the number is relatively low for a couple of reasons. First of all, because it uses the new property-tax concession approach. Secondly, it's worth remembering that the Texas So again, if you compare that to Corpus Christi with its 50, you can see why some of these numbers are disproportionate like that. Very good. I'll let you go to the next slide. Thank you. So it's perhaps not an obvious example, but Maryland is quite a good example I think relates to the Cove Point LNG facility. As some of you may know, Cove point was built back in the 80s as an L&G regas terminal. But in end, was mothballed for decades, because there was no L and G coming into the US. So for a long time, and perhaps this comes back to our question about disclosure, for long-time, the cove point facility was regulated. under the PUC. So, in the same way that a distribution company would be regulated on its assets, so was CovePoint. It then switched to being an LNG export terminal. And so in the early days of that, 2013, a decision was made to move to a built type arrangement. The main reasons for that were that the the local county Were concerned about volatility and their taxing income Equally, it was felt that Encouraging a capital asset of that scale. What was a positive thing to do? so that built ended in 2018 and It reverted back to conventional property tax appraisals with a 40% discount Interestingly, what they found was that there were then a set of differing expectations around valuation of the asset. There was some volatility around county income, which affected schools, and in fact it came to a head in 2023 when there was a very significant shortage in school budget, simply because that the county relied on that one facility. So in 2024, they decided to go back to a PILT and in fact, it was retroactive as well to address some of these budgetary issues that they'd encountered. So, you know, a very interesting example. You know communities that were relying on one big asset for the taxable income and certainly the conclusion that they came to was that a PILT was better than having to deal with the uncertainties around property tax. Interestingly, depending on which analysis you use, if you used the state valuation of the asset, the PELT is actually higher than the property tax would be. But if use the county's evaluation is slower. in the interest of all parties. Any questions on that slide? Senator Clayman. On a theme, how much information did Maryland have with respect to the economics and the balance sheets and everything else of that project when they were making these decisions? I don't have that information, but I think, you know, if we were to dig into this a little more closely, it would be easier to establish. It's not strictly relevant to these circumstances, perhaps for the benefit of the Committee and people watching at home. is that the pipeline built by TransCanada for the LNG Canada terminal was privately funded. There were direct negotiations between the pipeline builder and operator and Lng Canada. And as we've heard from our previous speakers actually from Pegasus, you know, there were private arrangements arrived at in terms of the tariff and how cost The difference between that and the phase one gas line here is that for the first few years at least of the pipeline project, the beneficiaries of that pipeline are regular gas and rate pairs in South Central and potentially Fairbanks and elsewhere. More important because a public interest determination has to be made So so it's just helpful to think that you know this this pipeline has a very different purpose For example to others that. You might see elsewhere That's helpful that's very helpful. Yes for us to keep in mind Senator Myers. Thank you manager. So Sure fall for it. I guess what's what going through my mind is You know, we're talking about a long-term change in the property tax. You're suggesting, you know you're looking at Louisiana saying 10 years. The chair has already mentioned there's been one suggestion out there that we make it in perpetuity, whatever the reduction is. I guess what I'm concerned with is, you Know, the pilt sounds like an interesting way to try to get around it. We still come back to our constitutional prohibition on we can't contract away our taxing authority. So even if we as a current legislature and the current administration come to an agreement, five years down the road, 10 years down road you know, whatever may be applicable, we still can not stop a future legislature, a Future Administration from attempting to change that and from the everything that we are getting Effectively, what they're asking for is we need certainty as much as possible. We want this set in stone and even though it pilts, I think probably heads in that direction with our current constitutional language, it sounds to me like it's impossible in the long run. Thank you for the question, Senator Myers. Through the chair, it's a question which also came up during SB 138. Given that the framework around SB 38, one of the purposes of that framework was to provide a fiscal framework and fiscal stability going forward. You've highlighted the constitutional constraints around the way in which taxes get set in the I believe some work was done by the Department of Law at the time to make an assessment in terms of how fiscal stability for a project of this scale and magnitude would be reconciled with some of these other constitutional constraints. And I'm sure the same questions would arise this time. you know the role of lenders for example, having in a project like this and you know one of the things that lenders would be you know top of their list list to look at would be you now fiscal framework and stability and you part of that would be just an appraisal around the jurisdiction the the regulatory and legislative framework that applies there because certainly a well-defined and well governed framework compared to many places around the world that host LNG. But, you know, conceivably they could be looking further than that at some kind of degree of assurance or certainty. Other questions? Senator Clayman. Just a little bit of a return to it, earlier question. It's, I'm working on that. I believe that Glenfarn has a fairly detailed model that they're working with to piece all these things together. In the world of what's confidential and not, is it in the realm that we could be saying to GlenFarn? You can't give us all the data that's in your model, but give the model you have and we can put our own numbers in and actually see, I mean, we might not actually be putting in put the model together is that in the realm of what something we could potentially request from Glenfarn to try to get a better understanding of how they've structured this package. Thank you, Senator Clinton, through the chair. With any global project development like this, the way in which the dialogue is handled between the project developers and the that there are different ways of approaching it and you know a lot depends on the way in which the project developer wishes to lead that through. Clearly as I think you've contained in your comments today there's certain decisions by the state which would be quite difficult to make broad economics of the project, because thinking of other jurisdictions where we are involved in a similar kind of discussion, there usually has to be some degree of exchange. And I can think of examples that we're looking at today on other continents where the Open Book Economic Model is a vital tool to frame the dialogue between government and project Mr. Fulford, thank you. We are at slide seven. The next slide begins the subject of Canadian Pacific Coast Projects. We're at five o'clock. So thank for agreeing to be joining us again on Monday. I had perceived that we probably wouldn't make it through and I'm thankful that you are available though you will be online. That's correct, Jackie. Yes. So, thank you very much for being here today in person, and so we will stop the presentation at this point. Just additional information for committee members, you do have In your packet, a report by an entity called Wood Mackenzie. It was prepared, presented in November of 2024, so two years ago, on the Economic Viability Assessment and Economic Value of Alaska ONG Project Phase 1. So that is in your materials and for the people online, for the public, it is also at the Resources Committee website. dot resources at aka leg.gov is our email address. You can shoot us an email. We'll send you directly to the website. So with that, we're going to conclude today and we will continue with Gaffney Klein on Monday, 3.30, same place. At this time we are adjourned. Let the record reflect. The time is 5.02 p.m.