Call the Senate Finance Committee to order. Today's February the 11th couple of minutes after 9 a.m. Please silence your cell phones present today. Senator Stedman, Senator Olson, senator Keel, Senator Carcman Senator Cronk, and myself Senator Hoffman, we have a form to conduct business today's agenda. We have four items on the agenda today It shouldn't take too long. We have the first item is Senate Bill 213, the operating budget, Senate bill 215, the mental health budget explanation of the veto of repealed appropriations by alleged legal and the presentation of Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation, which is probably the most important item on the agenda. So the first item, adoption of CS0 for Senate Bill 213, appropriations, operating budget, amendments, and supplemental, Senator Stedman. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I move that the Finance Committee adopt the committee substitute for Senate bill 213 Finance, 34-GS 2249-8 and I'll object for an explanation and invite Pete Ecklund to explain the CS, Mr. Echlund. Good morning, Mister Chairman, thank you for the record. My name is Pete Eklund, the staff to Senator Hoffman and the Senate Finance Committee. The committee's substitute you have in front of you, mr. Chairman is referred to as CS 0. It is simply put into the format of legal and alleged finance, technical and informing changes. The substance is the same as the governor's introduced budget. With one exception this year, Mr. Chairman, we do have a unique situation. Where the Governor has introduced a Department of Agriculture. There is ongoing litigation, as you are aware, there was an executive order issued the Department of Agriculture, the legislature filed a suit about that and disputed whether that was a legal creation. So far in the lower court courts, they have ruled in favor of the Legislature. And so for the purposes of this committee's substitute, we have rolled in, the department of agriculture back into, as a division, into the Department on Natural Resources. Thank you for that Explanation I remove my objection. Is there any further objection to adopting? The CS referred to CS 0 for Senate bill 213 Seeing none that Motion is adopted We'll go to the second item on the agenda Again, this is CS04 Senate Bill 215, the appropriations for the mental health budget. Senator Stidman. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I move that the Finance Committee adopt the committee substitute for Senate bill 215 Finance 34-GS 252. That's 2502, backslash N before the Committee as our working document. And I will object for explanation from mr. Eklund Thank You mister chairman, and I guess for brevity. I'll just say ditto on this Committee substitute technical and conforming changes Now we'll remove my objection is there further objection to the adoption of the CS seeing none That CS is adopted The third item is the veto of repeal appropriations. I invite Marie Marks from ledge council, legislative legal to come to the table. And Emily Newman, the director of legislative legal services and Megan Wallace, the chief council is online. Please introduce yourself and give us the explanation. Good morning for the record. My name is Emily now my director of legislative legal services and with me. I have Marie Good Morning and good to see y'all in person As many of you know, my name, is remarks and I'm a legislative council with legislative Legal Services I draft in a few different areas You probably recognize me or my Name on things and one of those areas is the language sections of the operating budget One of the services that legislative legal services offers to you the legislature is we just identify issues and concerns to help the Legislature make informed decisions. My memorandum dated January 21st, 2026 outlines the legal issue relating to last year's operating budget, HB 53. I plan today just to give a short summary of a question and the discussion in the memo, and then I'm happy to take any questions the members may have. So, just a short brief summary is Article 2, section 15 of the Alaska Constitution grants the governor the power by veto to strike or reduce items in appropriation bills. And we generally refer to this as the Governor's light item veto power. previously enacted appropriations. The governor subsequently vetoed language repealing these appropriations, the issue here is whether that line item veto power in Alaska Constitution grants the governor the power to use that veto, power in a way that has the effect of increasing an amount reduced by the legislature. This issue has not been squarely addressed by The Last of Supreme Court. However, in the case of Alaska Legal or Alaska Legislative Council v. Knowles, the Alaska Supreme Court did address what is a line item veto and what does the governor's line item, veto power encompass? And the court interpreted the phrase strike or reduce as follows, reducing an item lessens It explains the terms, those two terms strike and reduce, have equivalent effects, they diminish the amount appropriated. Here, as you know, the governor's action and strike in repeal of a previously enacted appropriation does not reduce the amount of appropriation to nothing or otherwise diminish them out. It actually has the effect of increasing the amounts of the appropriation. That's really a quick summary of issue in my discussion, but I'm happy to take any questions. Do members have questions of the discussion right from the table? Senator Keel. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. So, Ms. Marks, if memory serves, the courts have defined item in this context. Can you remind me what an item is? Through the chair senator keel correct in the Knowles case the court said an appropriation item is a sum of money dedicated to a particular purpose senator Keel name is Truman and and so And as I read your memo It it seemed to me that the There's a court case that said It's clear what reduce an item. Is but the courts said to strike an Item isn't simply to eliminate it from the bill, it is to reduce the money. Could you help with that, the difference between just taking away our addressing of a bit of money for a purpose versus reducing the spend? Through the chair, Senator Keel, in the Knowles case that I discuss in my memorandum, Interpreted what is strike and it specifically said it is Quantitatively or qualitatively the same as reduce it diminishes an amount appropriated and specifically the court said strike is to reduce an amount to nothing Senator keel. Thank you, mr. Chairman, so So then for the argument that's out there The there's an argument out. There that strike Simply means to take it out of the bill For the court to agree with that it would have to explicitly overrule its prior ruling Is that is that what I'm hearing you say? Through the chair senator keel. I think that that issue Was not directly on point in that Knowles case it was talking about whether the governor can strike language That doesn't appropriate a sum of money for a particular purpose in the case The governor had appropriated money relating to positions or extraneous money that is not a sum of money, or extriniest language that's not some of the money for a particular purpose. So I think the argument would be, did it directly address striking a veto of repeal? In that sense, the court would not necessarily have to overrule itself. Clarify the court could clarify. It's really the Knowles, but you're absolutely correct that the Court I think would have to address this language and Knowls that explicitly stated striking is Reducing on Mount to nothing it would. Have to clarify Clarifying just one last if I may was true. Yes, sir. Kiel at one point in your memo, and I apologize skimming while I listen isn't I strong to suit There was someone a reference someone saying that that close the purse strings who was that through the chair senator keel that was in the same nulls case that explained what does the power the governor have under the line item veto power-grounded in the Constitution and it was only to tighten the state's purse strings it cannot loosen them thank you mr. Chairman that sounds like more The decision is before the legislature whether we go forward or not it remains to be seen I just wanted to have this on the table so that members in the general public understand where we are. Any further questions before I set this aside? Thank you very much for that explanation. which is the permanent fund corporation. I invite Devin Mitchell, the chief executive officer, an executive director, and Marcus Frampton, the Chief Investment Officer to the table to give us a presentation on the Permanent Fund Corporation. Our crown jewel. Devon Mitchell, I'm the CEO of the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation, and as you stated, I have with me today our Chief Investment Officer Marcus Frampton. We have a slide deck to update you on. Some of things are going to be reminders because we have some of the same slides we share every year, but obviously beneficial to your wider audience, corporations performance over the course of the last year and historically prior to that. So this is the fiftieth year of 50th anniversary of The Fund's creation by the Alaska Legislature. The statute was passed in legislative session 50 years ago that provided the joint resolution for the constitutional amendment that was approved in the fall or the summer of 1976. And so we're in the process of celebrating that. We had 75,000 people back at that point that sacrificed the ability to have a resource rebate for themselves and instead decided to save money for the future of the state of Alaska in that intergenerational concept that we have finite resources that were developing as a resources oriented state for that benefit of residents of this state after those resources are depleted as one-time use resources. And certainly that's something to celebrate that 75,000 in the electorate of the day represented 66 or 7% of voters of this state. So as much of a landslide as you could have in an election generally. So an incredible act of thinking beyond oneself that occurred that we're benefiting from today. The constitutional amendment that was approved was pretty simple. All it said is we're going to save money, we are going invest money and then we spend all the money unless we otherwise are directed by the state's statutes to do otherwise the legislature. And so that, that is the debate in 1976 and the corporation and the permanent fund dividend program were created subsequent to that in 1980 and Ultimately the program that wound up paying money in 1982 and the permanent fund the first permanent Fund dividend distribution On slide three we show some of the history of The Fund's development you can see that initial deposit in 1978 of seven hundred and eighty thousand dollars that's grown to balance at the point of this financial reporting of about eighty six billion dollars And a portion of that, of course, is in the earnings reserve account that's spendable, appropriateable by 51% vote of the legislature in concurrence to the governor and the balances in principle. This slides a little, I don't know, there's not as much clarity in here as there could be because a balance of the fund is actually unrealized income that we'll delve into later in CIO I'll call it a gray area in between the two and it is allocated between the 2 accounts while it's unrealized and if it in fact realized when those investments are sold then it shifts over to the earnings reserve account. But in the meantime it somewhat overstates both the ERA balance as well as the principal balance. The actual constitutional principal balance is less than the amount you would see on this chart. It's actually 59.8 billion rather than, you know, the 70 some billion that's reflected on on the chart, so just something to be aware of. The so 73. 8 billion is reflected in here as the ERA balance and 12 point, I'm sorry, that the principal balanced and 12.5 is the ERA balanced, but you had have lesser balances in the principle of those earnings Greater balance in the ERA if Again those are realized those unrealized earnings. Can you inform the committee and the general public? What year did the legislature first spend funds out of the earnings reserve account It would have been through the chair mr. Chair it would've been 19 The first permanent fund dividend was funded out of the general fund, the $1,000 distribution. So that would have been the first year of a permanent funded fund from the permanent fund would've been 1983. Determining draws from the dividend was shifted from a historical percentage of earnings draw to a percent of market value draw in statute. Both of those things are obviously still in statue, but the state's been following the percent of the market-value draw, a historic average balance of the last five years taking a percentage that initially it was a higher percentage, it's now a 5% percentage. using that methodology since 2019 and That was also the point that the permanent fund was used for more than just permanent fun dividends It was always used first support of other governmental operational needs and that was Senate bill 16 that Came from the Senate Finance Committee Sponsored by the senate finance committee Please proceed. Thank you One important thing on this slide that when you're talking about things that the legislature did, that kind of brownish line that goes across that winds up. Around $20 billion. That's how much money would be in the permanent fund today if there wasn't a statutory framework that provided for the earnings to be retained in the fund through special appropriations and special appropriations have occurred from both the general fund as well as the Earnings Reserve account as well the inflation-proofing appropriations that have been made regularly by the legislature to the principal of the fund so a A financial resource, again, that's been built on the structure and the discipline of past generations of Alaskans. So the permanent fund invests more than just the permit fund corporation invests more then just permanent funds we also invest the mental health trust funds money I think you had a presentation earlier this week related to that as well as the power cost equalization endowment and so those total about $1.8 billion that's part of the assets under management that the fund's currently managing. And if you just looked at AUM, assets under management were actually over $91 billion that is being managed by the corporation today. So that would include this $2.88 as well as liability money that we're going to pay to the state this fiscal year. So it's not counted as part Financial net worth at this point because we have a we haven't offsetting liability But we're still managing that money until it's needed by the state of Alaska pay it over through the The plan that's developed by The Department of Revenue and Treasury Division The Amaretta has settlement money is a It's a subcategory of the permanent fund it is principle of permanent fun that can't be spent But the earnings are used in a different fashion from other earnings of the fund this settlement based on the Fact that the jury was it was a oil and gas litigation settlement that The jury Was comprised of Alaskans and there was A fear from the defense that The Alascans on the Jury Would be compromised by the knowledge that Any deposit from The settlement would go into the permanent funding affect their dividends so they had a conflict and so to avoid that potential of conflict the emeritus settlement was directed by the court not to be incorporated into any calculation of the permanent fund dividend, so the historical 21% of last five years earnings calculation and has maintained that status and is still held separately within the principle of permanent funds. We have a board of trustees six member board at trustees for from the general public appointed by the governor on staggered four-year terms as well as two from the executive branch one of which must must be the commissioner of the Department of Revenue and one other member of The Cabinet and we everyone at the permanent fund works every day to in their Rule maximize the risk-adjusted rate of return of permanent fund for the residents of Alaskans. It's something that every person I believe that comes to work at the corporation has an opportunity to embrace that mission because it's somebody everybody can be proud of that works there. And it is, I think, part of a culture that drives us to success. And at that same time, we want to be accountable Senator Stedman, can we go back to that slide, please? The power cost equalization, is there any creative way we could roll that into the constitutional protection so it can't get looted? Through the chair, Senator Steadman. I mean, this outside my, maybe you would ask your attorney, but Based on my experience in the Department of Revenue, knowledge of the state of Alaska's constitution that has prohibitions on dedications of state revenue. Unless there's some carve out, which there may be for the mental health trust. But so there would be a legal analysis that would need to occur. If there is not an ability to dedicate that revenue already, then there will need be some modification to provide for it, which would of course require a constitutional amendment. Mr. Chairman, I think maybe we should ask that question. I think it's probably not able to do it. But if there's some creative way, we can get the power cost equalization endowment protected from overdraws. We should definitely seriously consider that. We should. Thank you, Senator Stegman. Mitchell. Thank you. of the permanent fund in replacing finite resource revenue with infinite investment income from not just concentrated investment or economy in the state of Alaska but the world economy. So we have investments around the world primarily in the United States but around All of those investments return come back to the state of Alaska to benefit us in our state. And so we have, at this point, in my view, the most diversified revenue stream of any state in the United States that's predicated upon the permanent funds investment around the world relative to a reliance on our local economy for income to support our states' needs. The acid allocation has evolved over the years, we started off and kind of dipped our toe on the water and everybody was very conservative at that point in time, the 1970s were relatively... It was an after-inflation and negative performance year for the S&P 500 and so the idea of taking additional risk wasn't in the forefront of folks' minds. All fixed income when the fund was initially invested in then gradually as the funds matured and the structures matured surrounding the corporation and ability to perform as an institutional Additional asset classes added initially with real estate and public equities and then absolute return private equity And then we have the eight asset class as we currently have which is intended to this asset Class is equivalent to an 80% equity 20% fixed income portfolio. It just has greater diversity within it so that we have an expectation of lesser volatility risk equals volatility. So risk equals uncertainty in greater wins and greater losses. We're going to be a little bit closer to the middle, but we expect over the long term to have outperformance as a result of Portfolio construction and Marcus can talk more about that if you have questions This slide shows the historical earnings rate of the fund and we We talk a lot about the return objectives of The fund, and We have multiple return Objectives, but maybe the most important or arguably is the CPI plus five so we want to earn a real rate Of return a rate-of-return After inflation of 5% and this chart looks at five-year historical Bands of time and in the gold dot reflects the target of CPI plus five over that ten-year Lifespan of the fund and the the blue represents the real rate of return or the rate return after inflation and The gray represents inflation, and if you add those together, that's the return that was achieved for each one of those segments Interestingly, if you look at this same chart with a five-year look back, there's more volatility, predictably, more volatility to it, and so you see in the years leading up to the global financial crisis, outperformance above the gold dot, then it goes negative, the real is informative when you consider what happens when look at shorter time frames rather than longer time frames. And again, when consider is a 5% draw rate, an appropriate draw rate for an institutionally invested fund, like the permanent fund. And this chart suggests that it's a not to exceed amount in many ways. If we actually had a draw back in like 2009, for example, I asked the question the other day and the draw based on the historical earnings formula was like 2.85%. And a year that we had loss of close to, it was in the high teens. So we have a loss in high teams and we were paying out. 2.85% for just permanent fund dividends at the time, of course. And so if you said, what if you'd use that formula where you use the other half for state services? So this, if you recall, the formula says half goes to the permanent fund, uh, dividend account and half goes to state of Alaska under the, um, the old statute that there, there would have been a draw during a year that you had high teens negative performance of almost 6% and so there's it's It's very difficult as you contemplate the potential of negative markets and the long-term Stability needs of the state of Alaska with this fund To not consider how we're investing the money and how are taking risk and How we are going to draw money from from the fund and those are all Difficult questions to answers with with a lot of nuance to them But certainly is our our issues that the committee should should be thinking about and aware of Senator Steadman If he's done with this slide, I have a question. Yes, sir Yesterday we had a presentation from Leskham mental health and they had changed their pale, right? They raised it from I think four and a quarter to four-and-a-half and we asked them about that and he said that took their consultant, Cowlin, recommended that they move up to four and a half to get that balance between current demands of the beneficiaries of The Alaska Mental Health and future demands on the mental health members or what have you. If that sweet spot between current and futures, four and a half for mental health, why isn't it four-and-a-half for the permanent fund, because they're both in perpetuity, both have draws every year. There is a concern that at five percent draw, it's pretty much at the top of the range for It doesn't seem to be a lot of cushion there. So I was just wondering what your thoughts are on that, because I surprised yesterday when Alaska Mental Health moved their payout rate to 4 and a half. Through the chair, Senator Steadman. Yes, that's. So there's statistical probabilities based on historical markets in your asset allocation as to whether or not you break your model based on a draw rate. And so the lower the draw rates, the higher your statistical probability of not breaking the model is kind of common sense, right? And, so, at a four and a half, our chief risk officer has done analysis He gains confidence as you get into that four and a half range that you would have high probabilities of not breaking the model. And so, Calin and their modeling, as they're also our general market consultant, there's a lot of variables that go into any model in particular in this scenario. Under consideration that at the point in time that the POMB was created for the state of Alaska the needs of the State were dire There was a lot of need the draw rate initially was higher than five percent It was I can't remember was it five and a half or five-and-a-quarter Maybe five in half one year than 5 and 1 quarter for a couple years Yes, that was said that yes, and then it just right was set in Senate bill 26. Yes And so there was there established like kind of a stair step down to 5% and I think a lot of that was driven by just the pure necessity of the day, right, and so it's difficult. And if you look, in my time at the fund there have been discussions at board meetings about the draw rate and our advisors have consistently are, we have external board advisors, three have expertise specific financial expertise that advise the board and they have uniformly suggested that 5% is either the maximum or too high. Callan is a little bit more squishy I think that they haven't maybe been as forceful but I but i think if if you looked at our meeting of december 2023 were saying that 5% was a maximum and shouldn't be exceeded and perhaps too high. If you look at other sovereign wealth funds around the world, it's challenging to find one that has a 5%. And so you see a lot of 3 to 4 range, 3-4% range which arguably is too low. And so it is, it's like this challenge of how do you take into consideration the needs of the current generation of Alaskans at the same time you consider the need of future state of Alaska and generations of alaskan that are going to live here and balance those two kind of conflicting needs. And the difference between the mental health trust, they have the authority to set their permanent fund and for our cost equalization are set by law Yes, I believe so mr. Chair though if we want to change the draw rate for the permanent fund to something lower such as the Board mental health board did we'd have to introduce legislation to do so Where are the comments? Yeah, just one comment. I think if we consider that, we could also consider a step down from five to four and a half if somebody's contemplating that. And I guess it comes down to, you know, how much, from a particular viewpoint, you want to put on future generations of Alaska versus current generations, Alaska. How much you wanna try to take care of your grandchildren and great grandchildren that aren't even here yet the immediate needs of making the ends meet in this current budget cycle. Senator Stedman, are you considering recommending to the committee that we introduce legislation on a step down? I would, Mr. Chairman, I'd like the members of the Committee to think about that for a little bit and maybe have some conversations and see if there's support at the community to have that policy and discussion at a table, and if it is or isn't, if not, there is not. to follow along with the Alaska Mental Health proposal. I think that made a lot of sense, and I recognize that once you have a draw rate to the general fund, it's like a heroin addict. You know, what's hard to get off of that draw rating, if it was six or six and a half or five, whatever it is, you know. It's tough to do, but we can do it over time if to make it easier on the folks that have to do with your operating budget. Mainly, Mr. Chairman, yourself. So members of the committee should consider this, and we may consider introducing legislation as a committee if that is the desire of members. Senator Teal. Well, thank you, Mr. Chairman. Maybe the folks from the permanent fund could help inform the discussion a little bit. I mean, it looks as I look at this chart, like we've done just fine since 2010, maybe 2009, or. I mean, do we just have sort of negative Nellie sitting to the right of me who contemplates your future failure or do you guys have it figured out? Through the chair senator keel. No, that's negative. Nelly sitting tomorrow, right? But I think what this chart shows and you have to remember that during this time frame there wasn't a POMB draw There was a permanent fund dividend draw so you had a lesser use of the fund. And the most critical thing about the time frame that you have negative market experience is, well, fiscal discipline and ability to leave your investment intact. So if you're putting money in the S&P 500 and never drawing it, then that's hard to argue with. But when you start using it actively every year, it changes the math because when a correction in a loss in value and then you have a draw of a fixed percentage of a higher value that percentage just became higher right so you're not drawing five now you are drawing six or eight and when the market recovers that money is not there to recover and buoy the results afterwards and so if you if you look at those time trams our ability to withstand those negative markets was buoyed by the lesser use of the fund at the time. So I'm not sure that the historic, what you were saying, like a historical example is necessarily the same fact set that you would see on that chart if the draw rate we have today was in place back in that timeframe. So Mr. McKeel, just to make sure I am clear on that, right, this isn't dollars. This is return percentages Through the chair senator keel that's correct that the percentages would change Because you wouldn't have the money to invest anymore it would have been spent so if you spent if u had a Fixed 5% historical average draw in 2009 that example I used where I said oh there was a 2.85% distributed for dividends, well, you would have taken that historical balance, and it would have been 5% of that, not 2.85%, so you'd have had taken more money out of the fund, and then when the markets started recovering, immediately after 2009, that money wouldn't have have in there, so your performance and ability to build back wouldn t have been in place. Thank you. For the record, my name is Marcus Frampton. I'm the Chief Investment Officer of the Alaska Permanent Fund. I just have one comment on this page. Just from a historical standpoint, I started at the fund in 2012, and we had just come out of the global financial crisis. And as you see on the chart, at that point, it had been about three years since on a 10-year basis we achieved the CPI plus five. And six years into that time in 2018, we first hit the point where on a 10-year look back, we were hitting the inflation post-5 return objective of the fund. And I don't think that's more a reflection of where the markets were than how the investment being done at the time. And every year we set an asset allocation that's intended to have roughly a 50% chance of hitting inflation plus five over the next 10 years. So. We look at expected returns and we understand there are bull markets and there bear markets. And it's roughly 50-50 that it'll be inflation plus five outcome with that ass allocation. If you look the decade ended 2009, that was a very difficult decade with the dot com bust and then the global financial crisis. We had a modest positive real return on the fund. The S&P 500 had a negative real return. And so that was a period where diversification really helped. The last 15 years, more concentrated, large US stock portfolios have done better. 5% POMV draw with an S and P 500 portfolio. And the decade end of 2009 would be crippling. be under, with drawing 5% of the fund with no real return for a decade, would erode half the value of a fund on a nominal basis. And then when you layer an inflation, would a road another 20% percent of fund? You'd be left with about a third of their real value of that fund by the end of decade. If you got into a difficult US stock market environment like that with a concentrated US portfolio. You'd have a similar outcome in the 1970s, negative real return on the S&P 500, similar outcome, in 1940s the Great Depression, a negative, real, return, on S and P 500. And they may seem like isolated impacts, but those are three out of the last 10 decades. So you have like a 30% chance of a crippling outcome with a concentrated S & P500 portfolio. larger decisions that affect the fund itself are the amount of the payout for the permanent fund dividend that is fluctuated and we have not followed that law. And have used that as sort of a buffer. And the other major factor is whether or not we inflation proof it. or non-inflation proof the fund, and those would have big swings on the fund. But those decisions are made by the legislature. Mr. Mitchell, please proceed. So, one thing I wanted to do today was do a review of the performance of the fund and to that there's three measures that get assessed and they tell us different things so we've just talked about the funds performance against the CPI plus five return objective that's the bottom numbers all kind of start on If we look at the five-year basis, that is the toughest period against inflation plus five on this one, three, five, 10, 42- year framework. So on a five year basis it's one of those periods that around half the time that metrics not achieved. But the good news is that on the longer-term basis 10 years and then 42 years, the fund's older than 42, years old, but that was when Cowan started doing performance reporting for us, so that's when we've got good numbers to look at. The fund has achieved actually CPI plus six effectively. I'm gonna go into later how we make decisions on asset allocation, but from a day-to-day investment We don't manage the inflation plus five. If there was an instrument, you could, a financial instrument that gave you inflation plus 5, we'd consider buying that. But if you want to lock in an inflation plus return, you'd have to buy a treasury inflation protected security. And that's giving you kind of inflation plus one and a half or two right now. So by necessity, we invest in risk assets. across six major asset classes. The largest is public equities, the second is fixed income. Then we have our private asset class's private equity, real estate, private income, which is infrastructure and private credit. We have a hedge fund portfolio. The performance benchmark is what we manage to on a day-to-day basis. So after we do the asset allocation and conclude, the board concludes with staff input that we're going to do 30% global stocks, the performance benchmarks then sets 32% of that calculation is how did global stocks do. Fixed income is 20%. So 20% the composite of investment grade institutional fixed income and our team gets assigned these benchmarks and they manage against them and accumulate up on a percentage basis on how assets are allocated. So day to day, we're looking at in terms of execution, are we in the right real estate the portfolio against this performance benchmark and similar to the return objective, it's not a situation where every year we beat the performance bench mark. It's more than the 50% of the time that's the returned objective but it is certainly well under 100% percent of that time. When you look at these numbers where the biggest pressure we've had, you see the slight underperformance The biggest driver, the majority of that is an underweight in our stock portfolio to software and technology companies. And that has been well covered in the financial press, that the big, they call MAG7 tech companies, and then the next level down software companies have been the market leaders for the last are trading at a very extended valuations now. That's been a major headwind. I'm pleased that in spite of that, we're still being our benchmark on one year and five year. The three years, the toughest period. We've actually started seeing this calendar year, a real sell-off in software companies under threat from AI. And the AI companies that are threatening the software company tend to be private companies. We're not underweight, the AI companies that are threatening the software companies and we are very much under weight the companies under pressure as this calendar year has started. So through today we're beating fiscal year to date, if this keeps up we'll trend back positive over the three year. I would say we're trying to manage the portfolio conservatively given the exuberant market. We're holding a little extra cash and we are underweight the very expensive stocks, which has led to this mixed performance on the three year and the fiscal year to date. Another thing I just wanted to mention is something that Devon mentioned is that we It's a very competitive spirit. People are very focused on every basis point. And we're very proud of these results. When I joined 12 years ago, I think the culture was a little more, I don't even think this is a bad thing necessarily, but it was much more conservative, protect capital at all cost approach and a bit less, let's beat benchmarks. And that does show up in these numbers. If you look at the 10 year, we're beating our benchmark by 30 basis points, but on the 42 year we've underperformed per annum by nine basis point. So if we are beating in the last 10 years and underperforming on that balance, or for the full 42 it does imply that for 32 years before the ten years the fund did under performance benchmark. And I attribute that to like this very conservative Management philosophy that was in place and I think we still have a very conservative management philosophy and our port and it's reflected in Underweighting expensive stocks holding a little more cash, but we're balancing a performance orientation a bit better in the last 10 years So that's the performance benchmark I I Think it is a strong record over long periods and the way the markets turning now turning into a very strong performance on short periods. We also have a passive benchmark, which is the next row down. That is a benchmark that we do not manage two day to day, but stakeholders should be very attuned to, because it represents what a similar diversified portfolio that could be invested in with the click of a mouse in anyone's Vanguard account. So, that portfolio is 60% global equities, 20% fixed income, 10% REITs, which are real estate securities that trade, and 10 percent tips, treasury, inflation protected securities. There's no magic to that 60,20,10, ten, it's just a mix that was arrived at when that passive benchmark was created something like 15 years ago. And what we see with that passive benchmark, because it's 60% global stocks, and our portfolio's 32% global stock, is when you have big run-ups, big bull markets in the stock market, our portfolio generally can't keep up with the passive benchmark that's sixty percent, that is twice the stocks that we have. If you look back over time, we commented probably half the time we outperform inflation plus five, more than half the times we outperformed the performance benchmark. The passive benchmark is much more consistent on the long term for the whole time I've been at the Perm fund if you looked at like five and 10 year. We almost always are beating the passive benchmark because there's time for our illiquid equity investments to generate return. But on a year-to-year basis, it's basically like what did the stock market do? If it was strong, we underperformed passive. If the So I hope that's clear and I didn't confuse everyone with the three different metrics But they are very different measures and tell very different things about how the funds performing and if I left you with anything it's that we're very performance oriented and are trying to balance that with also being conservative and Carried tremendously about all the funs doing and we think the fund's doing well This light Please proceed Let's skip these I covered this I also covered Some of this on this page, but I'll just reiterate a couple points there has been conversation about should the fund just invest in S&P 500 that's a bad idea and There is real value to diversification. It just hasn't shown up in the last five to ten years the SMB 500's been an index since the late 1800s and if you go back through the history of SMP 500 and Think about a 5% POMB It's hard to conclude that you'd want to be a hundred percent in it We've looked at we know a lot of different endowments and state funds. No one is a hundred percent in the S&P 500 There's no one who has their stock portfolio a 100 percent and the s&p 500 Every every other pure organization has looked it this question concluded That they want small cap stocks that they won international stocks, but they don't want just the 500 biggest US stocks So we don t see it in our industry We feel like the S&P 500 today has a lot of risk because it's concentrated in the tech sector. That concentration increases risk. And then there's also a legal point. All funds like The Permanent Fund are established with guidelines and statutes and we have a It's not to say that a hundred percent SMB 500 portfolio would necessarily violate that statute, but we think it would likely violate it Senator Kaufman Thank you through the chair I think Some of the questions are are maybe very narrow to just the S&P, But some of those questions I've heard are more general with respect to indexing. So I don't know if you had a VTI for a certain piece of it. And BND, as far as a couple of ETFs, just come up with a very low cost diversified and risk balance ratio of that, maybe some REITs. Real estate investment trusts. Portfolio like that perhaps with some AI management just trying to keep you You know maintain your your asset allocation over time Just for the sake of those that wonder those things What do you think about that type of model? Yeah, through the chair senator Kauffman, I think highly of that model. I that's a good model that in particular institutions that have limited resources or, you know, Warren Buffett, everyone likes to quote Warren Buffett. He has a great quote. He says, once you acknowledge that you're dumb money, you stop being dumb, money because you do exactly what you just said. I mean, in our industry, dumb money is a commonly used term for someone who doesn't have an insight in the market to validate active management. It's not a pejorative necessarily, even though it sounds like it. But most people should do exactly what you're doing. Like in their accounts, probably most institutions should that. And we don't see it that much in our industry, but even if no one does just that some people 500, people do versions of what he just said. Well Known for that and they have one employee they're active in private equity in real estate But they outsourced it so they've hired a firm to go find private Equity investments in Real estate investments and the index stocks and bonds and it's worth really well for them and They're a top-performing fund. They've low-cost I always look at how we do versus them some years we beat them. Some years they beat us So I'm not, I think what you described is a good approach to manage money. Our institution has decided to do active management and we've built a 27 person investment team and have expertise in the different markets. And we don't take it as a given that we're going to be trusted to actively manage the fund. that failure should result in the Nevada model. I don't think that we've failed on those measures, and I think the analysis that's been done that argues that have is faulty analysis, but I look at our passive benchmark, and we beat it on five and 10. I thing that validates the active management we're doing, and when we beaten our performance benchmark I think that validates it, but you can't look, you know, it I, I think I answered your question. I have a lot of respect for that model. Senator Koffner. Thank you. Uh, through the chair, just, yeah, thank you for your answer. And I just want to add, you I respect the work that you're doing. So I'm not trying to chip away at that, Mentioned it and I just thought I'd take it a little bit beyond the simple S&P argument just for the sake of the conversation about diversification So, thank you. Thank you senator Kaufman send a keel Thank You, mr. Chairman, so it's it it. It's a good sort of threat of conversation You know folks are looking at their 401 accounts. They're seeing some pretty big numbers in the last couple of years We're not necessarily seeing those numbers Here and you talked a bit about That in light of the fact that we need to draw money each year Did did our predecessors mess this up? Did our predecessor's should our predecessors not have told you to diversify the fund and your predecessor to diversified the Fund until the time when we needed to to start drawing from it in a more significant way through the chair, Senator Keel. So don't misunderstand me. I think those are two different issues, like the impact of having a draw during a volatile market is different than diversification within our portfolio construction. And so as far as whether or not, I I'm sorry, CIO Frampton has already provided a lot of explanation about the history of the S&P 500 The almost unrecoverable events that occur from time to time in that market and the value of diversification is going to be borne out during those times. We're in a time of extraordinaryism. Yeah, I don't know if you've heard that term, but it's a term used for the U.S. markets in recent times, U S. extraordinaryism. There was kind of a shift away from that, and you saw a sign of kind of balance in international markets in the last year, but otherwise the US markets have been doing extraordinarily well, and that's primarily been born upon the... the fate or the work of a small number of companies that have done extraordinarily well, the MAG-7. And if you look at the percentage of the S&P 500 that those companies represent from a historical perspective relative to today, it's become a challenge for organizations like ours that might have a more strict. Diversity mandate that they can't even invest in the S&P 500 because it's too concentrated in seven companies the diversification has gone away If you remove those seven company's from the s&p 500 the performance is Somewhat mediocre to not great and so it it is The time frame that as an individual It has been an amazing time if you have a lot of money deployed in the S&P 500 because it has an extraordinarily strong market, but whether or not that will continue into the future is highly questionable based on historical experience. four fathers and mothers that created this structure that we have of diversification. I think that that's definitely a prudency issue and a fiduciary standard that you would be irresponsible. It's more like you, you'd set yourself up for larger failures if you didn't have those constructs built into your portfolio construction. Sorry, Marcus. Yeah, through the chair, Senator Keel. It depends on who 401k it is. If it's a young person, and they're all in stocks, and then they've done well, that's fantastic, and the did the right thing, but they should be aware that the market can go down. If there's person closer to retirement who's done really well in their 401K, because they were all on stocks then even though it was a good outcome, I think they made a mistake because they're exposing themselves to a lot of risk. Like the stock market today is more expensive than it was in 1929. And that could be devastating to a near retiree if they've got their 401K on stocks. Can you proceed? So I thought I would just comment quickly on the expected return of the fund and the asset classes and how we come up with asset allocation. So, Cowan Associates, our consultant, has capital market forecasts, and those numbers on the right are the 10-year capital markets forecast that Cowen has for each of asset class' the funds is in. So they believe that private equity will return on average 8.5% per annum, global... global stock, seven and a half, and so on down the list to, you know, fixed income, being the lowest major asset class at 4.7, which is still a much higher return than in the past fixed incomes had when rates were lower. Down at the bottom on the right, we have talent inflation forecasts. So they're forecasting two and half percent inflation. be it CPI plus two would be the expectation for the fund's return. When you add up our targets which are on the left there to their forecasts, it arrives at a before inflation return of 7.3% and a real return of 4.8. So that's, I earlier made the comment that we build portfolios that are expected Cowan would score our portfolio at CPI plus 4, 8, and then we attempt to get to 5 through beating our benchmarks is the strategy. And they would assign on a probability basis roughly a 50-50 that over the next 10 years this portfolio would hit CPI close 5. For the next portion, I'm gonna spend a few minutes on how we make investment decisions and the due diligence process when we go into investments. And I hope to leave everyone with an understanding of how to make decisions and also an understand of all the checks and balances in place and third parties that get involved to help us review investment opportunities. So at the core of our investment process is an investment committee. The investment committee meets once a week on Thursdays and there are three Parties that vote at the investment Committee, so it's myself and then we have a deputy CIO for private markets Alan Waldrop and a Deputy Cio for public markets Jim Paris So to pursue an investment It's majority vote of those three so It hasn't happened yet, but I could be against it another two for it. I would go ahead And similarly, if I want to do something and Allen and Jim don't want to it, it doesn't go ahead. So we meet, and then also importantly, our chief risk officer, Sebastian Vadakamcieri participates in the meetings. He reports to Devin, not to me. And he makes sure that we follow all the policies and are in compliance with our investment policy statement. We maintain a pretty open investment committee. In my career, I've been at places that have had investment committees that are pretty tight, and it's a little secretive with the partners. Ours is open, our interns, our analysts join, anyone can ask a question. So that's the overall process, and that committee reviews decisions on private investments, like going into an investment, exiting an investment refinancing a real estate property, And then it also reviews like major moves on the public side. It doesn't, it delegates to the investment team, individual stock and bond purchases, but things like what tracking error, which is a risk limit, do we want to run equities at? The investment committee will review major policy matters like that. intensive part of what we do on an individual investment basis are private investments that we pursue, whether it's buying a building or investing in a fund or co-investing with a private equity fund. And we have an investment process that's laid out on this page that roughly fits into four categories and spans three to 12 months. I won't go through every We review a lot of funds at the initial review stage, so like hundreds of private equity funds, hundreds venture capital funds. In the case of Private Equity, we have a six-person team. So the portfolio managers and the analysts on that team are like always talking to the different funds that are in the market and looking at their track record, how it fits with our portfolio, how they've done versus the managers we And that's the initial review. If we get interested in an opportunity, it then goes into due diligence, which is a one to three month period where there's additional meetings where we're doing more formal review of track record and performance comparisons. Usually at this stage is when we start looking at the legal terms which are important on private funds. But at this point, and at that point it's probably been introduced to the IC, but not in detail. And if that yields a positive outcome, it goes to extensive due diligence. That's when we often bring in a third party consultant, which would do things like background might not be accessible to us like for example we're investing Asia funds and funds that we might necessarily have an on-the-ground presence but our consultant would have a presence and at that point we often bring in council to look at the fund documents that's anywhere from one to six months and then And at this point, the investment committee is well briefed on the opportunity and has heard in fair amount of detail why it's a good fit with our portfolio, and once the investment community makes a decision, then it goes to Devon, unless he has otherwise delegated So I wanted to just give them the dollars involved in the fees we're paying and the amount we have in private investments. I want it to, even though this is a bit of a summary, we've everyone with a sense of the level of work that we are doing when we make a private fund investment. And I think the process that the permanent fund goes through to select investments are different than the Department of Revenue, particularly considering this company. Could you walk through the processes, if, you know, how, what, from a recollection, what did your bridge went through, to be selected and worked in with the Permanent Fund? And the reason I asked that, Mr. Chairman. At some point we'll have the Department of Revenue here, and we can compare and contrast the management process between those two entities dealing with the same company Can you help me with that? The chair center of Stedman. Yes, we have two investments with digital bridge and They're in our private infrastructure portfolio In any given year we deploy roughly 500 million dollars into private infrastructure opportunities and the team follows all the major infrastructure funds and digital bridges, one of them. And I don't have the exact date, but their most recent fund was in the last, call it, 18 months, and their predecessor fund, was probably three or four years earlier. Their prior fund went through this exact process. It was initial review of many different opportunities. At that point, we did not, in our infrastructure portfolio, have a very extensive holdings in digital infrastructure, data centers, things like that. And we felt like it would be a good area to get involved. And, and we made an allocation to that fund. But, went though this whole process, I won't repeat everything. We got a consultant that we looked at several digital-oriented infrastructure funds. We felt like Digital Bridge was the horse we wanted to pick and went through and made a commitment to their fund. On their last fund, in the last couple years, they came through the same way. The differences were deploying a little bit less money into infrastructure than we were four years ago. We were building up the portfolio. In contrast to four years ago, we now have some good data center exposure. And there were also questions about some changes at the firm and things I won't go into necessarily. I would probably need our infrastructure PM to do it in depth. But we passed on the last fund. But they showed us a co-investment that went in the last Fund that we liked. And we made a commitment to an individual portfolio company. that is in their most recent fund and it went through this process to make that co-investment and so we didn't want the fund but we wanted an individual company. Okay so if I could so and this Mr. Mitchell you probably should answer this question. The process if you were to have legal counsel look at that particular And what kind of costs would be expected to be incurred by the permanent fund to have a review? Through the chair ballpark, this isn't like in the pennies, but in concept in ballpark range. Sure through the Chair, Senator Steadman. We have attorneys on retainers, so we have a general counsel in-house and then he allocates works. to specific expertise oriented law firms based on asset class and needs of the corporation and for review of a potential deployment to a general partnership, a private equity or private income infrastructure deployment, it would be somewhere in that range of like 20 to $40,000 for that legal review you're talking about attorneys that are very high caliber. you know, a thousand plus dollars an hour, it's a attorneys. 20 to $40,000. I think, Mr. Chairman, we should remember that in America. Just at some point, we're going to have another discussion on this. Just for the record, I got some serious concern what went on with the Department of Revenue and the ex-commissioner. There's no doubt about that. That's not a secret. I don't have the concern with the permanent funds holding a digital bridge for saying the process they went through. Complete issues So I just don't want anybody to you know assume that that there's a direct correlation and how things are managed With with that and I've talked with mr. Mitchell about this so I knew roughly how he is gonna answer that question That's why I asked him I'm not mister Not as chief investment officer, so Thank you, mrs. Chairman Thank You Senator Keel. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, on that one particular investment. Can you give us a sense of your time horizon on that, Ballpark? Through the chair, Senator Kiel, these private funds generally are a 12-year life, so I think we probably have eight years remaining on the fund we invested in. similar on the company we invested plus maybe two years. So we'll be in business with Digital Bridge for the next 10 years at a minimum, I think. Senator Keel, thank you. Thank you, Senator Kiel. Please proceed. We're just going to have a little. Senator Stegman. Just a real quick follow up, just a point, the permanent funds in perpetuity and we know what to draw as it's 5% a year and we sit down and talk about this every year in the asset allocation. It's a whole different ball game when we're dealing with the Constitution of Budget Reserve, which looks to be having a high probability of significant capital draws, the two to four or five hundred million a year. There's been proposals put in by the governor of a billion and a half a-year on a three billion dollar account. So that's much shorter life than the perpetuity life of the permanent fund and the liquidity I thought I'd put that on the table. Thank you, Senator Stedman. Please proceed. OK, I have a few of my remaining slides get into statutory net income and unrealized gains. And this page shows the history of statutory net-income. And statutory-net income is what fills up the earnings reserve account every year. And it's realized income. in contrast to a stock goes up, but we don't sell the stock, that's not realized income. Realized income is interest payments on bonds. We hold rental income on real estate we own, dividends on stocks, and then when we exit and when you sell a stack or we sell at private equity holding, the gain goes to saturate net income, and saturating net is an important number because it fills up the earnings reserve and provides money that is available. I think it's helpful just to look at the history, just see how lumpy this number is. So in 2009, there was a negative over $2 billion statutory net income. We had a very high in 2018 statutory net-income because of two very large private investments we sold that were very-large. And so booked like multi-billion dollar gains. In 2021, it was real strong stock market. kept rebalancing back to targets of selling stocks when it went over our target, and that just led to, in a couple of the few other things, but mostly that led to an $8 billion a year. And then the white lines to the right are Callum's forecasts for what the fund's statutory net income will be going forward, and it's an annual statutory But it's based on assumptions and all forecasts or could go different ways. But I'm just pointing out that history is a lot lumpier than the forecast. And I want to get into what drives statutory net income and how to think about it here on this page. So we have a number that is pretty bankable, which is I am calling baseline statutory net-income. That's our dividend-income interest payments on bonds and rental payments on our real-state properties. And so we did $2 billion last year in really recurring statutory net income. If you go back to this page, the forecast is $5 billion a year and growing of statutory and income starting in 27. The 26 numbers hire because we've had a big statutory net and come first half of the year. So they're forecasting six this year, and then five and grow next year so that number, 5 plus billion, the majority of it comes from booking gains on investments, which are much less recurring in nature, and to think about how to forecast how we're going to book gains on investment. And I also point out we don't manage this at all, like we just manage the allocations I've been at the fund for 13 years, there's never once in my time been a decision that's been driven by we need to book a game, like it has never occurred. So I'm just explaining how you would look at it, but I am not implying that this is what we do look out when we manage the portfolio. If you look the at portfolio today there is 17 billion of unrealized gains, portfolio On average, we churn about 25% of our unrealized gains in a given year, but there's wide spectrum. There have been years that it's been 10%, and there is years it has been 50%. But when we model it going forward, we assume 25%, because that's the average. And that is how you get to a five to six billion dollar statutory net income, is that if you churn 25%. $16, $17 billion number, you get about $4 billion a statutory net income. You add that to the baseline of $2 and you're at $6. On that table on the right there, I'm just indicating the sensitivity to a stock market. So if the stock mark goes down 25%, the 17 becomes 10, the far left column. So, if you churning 25% of your unrealized gains then, well, now you down at 2 and 1 half billion. And the reality is a little worse than that, because if you're just looking at the stock market going down, and you look at that first row, a 25% decline in the Stock Market would wipe out all our unrealized gains in our public equity asset class. So at this point, any rebalancing of equity stops generating statutory net income. And most of our unrealized gains at that point would be our private portfolio, the biggest being private equity at 4.6. And that's really outside our control. That's when private-equity firms decide to take companies public or sell them. And when every dollar that that occurs sends statutory net income our way in a downstock market, that would dry up a bit. is what leads to years like 0.2, 0, 3, or 0 9, where you have like really weak statutory net income, is that a decline in the stock market wipes out unrealized gains, and you could even be in a situation, like in 0 8, the stocks market went down 50%, so you'd actually have 5 billion of unrealize losses, and then every time we trade stocks for spitting out negative statutory and netting home. So, I just wanted to share that because it's a complicated situation and in a bear market. It has difficult implications for statutory net income, which we all rely on to fill up the ERA. Senator Keel. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr., some of these numbers probably move some with bull in bear markets, right? a trade in income from private equity until there's a sale, but as you mentioned, the private-equity deals, I think you said dry up some in a bear market. So likely, if we were to try and sell something, you're gonna get a little less from it, right? Through to the Chair, Senator Keel, that's exactly correct. It's easier to calculate the impact on public equities, but private equiaxit's absolutely dry-up. We could analyze that and we do when we model different scenarios, but directionally what you're saying is absolutely correct Thank you. Thank You, Mr. Chairman. It would be helpful to get We don't need it, you know to the dollar but some some sense of what those correlations are Expected to be just just Because this chart sort of implies that the only thing That's volatile the stocks and I don't I know that's really the implication. We mean to convey Thank you through the chair just curious with Some of these investments we're doing that become you know highly Evaluated over time that they grow like crazy and Maybe the dynamics are such we we just we want to get out of it and so we realize those very large gains and in those situations. So if you could just confirm for me where that money goes when we realize a very large gain. Yeah, through the Chair, Senator Kaufman, that we have about 40% of the fund in private assets. And when you have that much in-private assets, managing the cash flows is critical. Specifically, when we exit a major asset, I mean, it comes into our cash portfolio. And we don't want to hold too much cash, so that day I would reallocate it to stocks and bonds. We're trying to maintain our exposure to our targets on private, so we have investment activity that can be lumpy and exits that could be lumpy, and then we've got elaborate spreadsheets that pace it out and estimate where it's going so that we don't end up in a situation where we got a lot of cash that's we can't. We don�t have something we want to invest it in, but the bigger the lumpier the private our cash planning and What other things we're buying but we put a lot of thought into it. It stays in the fund I guess is the point, but then we have to figure out where to put it Thank you for that if individual members have additional questions they could ask After the meeting of the employees of The permanent fund the bells have rung a little over ten minutes ago, and we had joint session Mr. Mitchell do you have any closing comments? Thank you, Mr. Chair. I Sorry that we weren't more expedient and getting through our slides, but I think there's important information and it's hard to rush and We appreciate the committee's time and if there are additional questions when you produce the rest of the slide deck Please reach out and we'll answer those All the meeting back to order, that concludes the morning session. We have an afternoon session at 1.30, we have three bills on the calendar. Senate bill 140, the fire station grant program. Senate Bill 23, civics education. SGR 2, a constitutional amendment, needed for a veto override. So we will stand in adjournment until 1 30.